TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY
HOW RATES MOVE:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: NEUTRAL
Rates are trending sideways to very slightly lower this morning. The MBS market worsened by -7 bps Tuesday. This likely caused rates or fees to move sideways for the day. Rates continue to move mostly in a tight channel on low volatility.
TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: NEUTRAL
Jobs: The Challenger-Grey Job Cut Report showed a big drop in announced corporate layoffs from 44,569 in November down to 32,843 in December. Initial Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 222K vs. est. of 225K. The more closely watched 4-week moving average increased to 233,250.
Central Bank: The People’s Bank of China lowered its requirement for banks’ required reserve ratio (RRR) by 50 BPS, which effectively makes about 800 billion yuan available to lend.
China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs. est. of 51.7
Germany: Markit Manufacturing PMI 43.7 vs. est. of 43.4
Eurozone: Markit Manufacturing PMI 46.3 vs. est. of 45.9
TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: AVERAGE
MBS prices have been pushing slightly higher (lower rates) over the last few trading days. The economic news today and the concern over military escalation in the Middle East are helping to push rates very slightly lower.
BOTTOM LINE:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWS
