Jobless Claims Fall For The 4th Week In A Row

TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY

HOW RATES MOVE:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: NEUTRAL

Rates are moving slightly higher so far today.  The MBS market worsened by -21 bps yesterday. This caused rates or fees to move higher for the day. The rates experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: NEUTRAL

Jobs: Initial weekly jobless claims were lower than expected (214K vs. est. of 220K). The more closely watched 4-week moving average dropped to 224K from 233K.

Treasury Dump: We will have our 30-year bond auction at 1:00 pm ET.

Trade War: The media is reporting that China’s Vice Premier Lie He will be in Washing D.C. next week and sign the Phase One trade deal between the 13th and 15th.

China: CPI 0.0 vs. est. 0.3/PPI -0.5% vs. est. of -0.4%

Germany: Industrial Production 1.1% vs. est. of 0.7%

Eurozone: Unemployment Rate 7.5% vs. est. of 7.5%

TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Rates are ticking higher due to the reduced risk that the Iran “conflict” will escalate along with the consistent drumbeat of positive economic news. While rates are sliding higher, we continue to trade in a very tight range on moderate volatility.

BOTTOM LINE:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS