{"id":8923,"date":"2020-03-17T18:11:30","date_gmt":"2020-03-17T18:11:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/blog\/?p=8923"},"modified":"2024-10-16T18:48:32","modified_gmt":"2024-10-16T18:48:32","slug":"market-focus-coronavirus-stimulus-and-retail-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/market-focus-coronavirus-stimulus-and-retail-sales\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Focus: Coronavirus, Stimulus, And Retail Sales"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>TODAY&#8217;S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY<\/h3>\n<h4>HOW RATES MOVE:<\/h4>\n<p>Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.<\/p>\n<h4>RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING:\u00a0NEUTRAL<\/h4>\n<p>Mortgage rates are moving sideways so far today.\u00a0<strong>The MBS market improved by +102 bps yesterday.<\/strong>\u00a0Typically this would be a fantastic move for rates, but in these times, mortgage rates may have slightly improved. Rates, once again, experienced high volatility yesterday.<\/p>\n<h4>TODAY&#8217;S RATE FORECAST:\u00a0NEUTRAL<\/h4>\n<p><strong>Retail Sales:\u00a0<\/strong>The March headline retail sales data was softer than expected (-0.5% vs. est. of +0.2%). However, some of that miss was due to the substantial upward revision to February from 0.3% to 0.6%. Ex-Autos, Retail Sales were down -0.4% vs. est. of +0.2%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Manufacturing<\/strong>: February Industrial Production was stronger than expected (0.6% vs. est. of 0.4%). Capacity Utilization was in line with estimates (77.0% vs. est. of 77.1%)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Housing<\/strong>: The March NAHB Housing Market Index remained above 70 with a reading of 72<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jobs<\/strong>: The January Job Openings and Labor Turn Over Survey (JOLTS) showed a nice improvement, moving from 6.552M unfilled jobs in December to 6.963M in Jan.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stimulus<\/strong>: The White House and Senate are working on the final touches for an $850B package. This would include payroll tax suspension for the rest of the year, the bailout of Airlines, and potentially &#8220;helicopter money&#8221; for consumers.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Japan<\/strong>: Industrial Production 1.0% vs est of 0.8%<\/p>\n<p><strong>Great Britain:<\/strong>\u00a0Unemployment Rate 3.9% vs. est. of 3.8%<\/p>\n<p><strong>Coronavirus<\/strong>: These are the headlines that are getting the attention of bond traders this morning:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Kentucky Derby is postponed until September<\/li>\n<li>MLB has delayed the open of their season<\/li>\n<li>The famed Las Vegas Strip will close for the first time ever<\/li>\n<li>U.S. Cases 4,661, Deaths 85<\/li>\n<li>Nordstrom to close all stores in the US<\/li>\n<li>McDonald&#8217;s closes all in-restaurant dining<\/li>\n<li>Spain&#8217;s cases surge to 11,178 up 2K from Monday<\/li>\n<li>France does a $50B stimulus bill as French President Macron says, &#8220;we are at war.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>California Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered all bars, restaurants, and wineries in the state closed<\/li>\n<li>7 California Counties on Lock Down (Quarantine)<\/li>\n<li>CDC and President Trump announced that all groups of 10 or more should be avoided at all costs.<\/li>\n<li>The CDC confirmed that one of its employees had tested positive for the virus. The WHO reported that two of its staffers had tested positive.<\/li>\n<li>Spain and Italy ban short-selling<\/li>\n<li>Amazon to hire 100K delivery\/warehouse employees<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>TODAY&#8217;S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY:\u00a0HIGH<\/h4>\n<p>Rate volatility will likely be extreme once again today. The big factor that could move rates is if the Senate announces a meaningful bailout agreement. If they do, and it looks like it has the potential to do some good, look for rates push higher.<\/p>\n<h4>BOTTOM LINE:<\/h4>\n<p>If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.<\/p>\n<p><small>Source: TBWS<\/small><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TODAY&#8217;S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY HOW RATES MOVE: Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8968,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-intelliloan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8923","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8923"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8923\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8990,"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8923\/revisions\/8990"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8968"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}