{"id":8815,"date":"2020-01-15T19:39:31","date_gmt":"2020-01-15T19:39:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/blog\/?p=8815"},"modified":"2024-10-16T19:01:03","modified_gmt":"2024-10-16T19:01:03","slug":"mortgage-applications-jump-inflation-remains-low-and-trade-war-looking-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/mortgage-applications-jump-inflation-remains-low-and-trade-war-looking-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Applications Jump, Inflation Remains Low, And Trade War Looking Up"},"content":{"rendered":"

A big day today, the signing of the US\/China phase one deal in Washington.<\/strong>\u00a0Yesterday it became clear that the US will not remove the existing $320B of tariffs; it surprised the markets that there is nothing in the deal now that would lessen them. The US will, however, not impose the $150B additional tariffs that Pres. Trump had threatened. The agreement had been seen as a significant accomplishment, a bit less so now that details are coming out. It’s 86 pages, and in politics, 86 pages is like a memo. The US agreed to halve 15% duties on $120 billion of imports and delay others in return for Chinese promises to make structural reforms and purchase an additional $200 billion in American goods.<\/p>\n

The House is sending the impeachment to the Senate,<\/strong>\u00a0and Mitch McConnell is indicating the trial will begin next week. The unanswered question is who will be called to testify. Likely there will be witnesses, among Republicans there is a desire to allow witnesses but who? On impeachment, McConnell is saying the trial will probably go on past the February 3rd Iowa caucuses.<\/p>\n

Dec PPI, another inflation read that was lighter than forecasts,<\/strong>\u00a0the same we saw yesterday when the CPI was reported. PPI +0.1%, yr\/yr +1.3%; ex-food and energy +0.1%, yr\/yr +1.1%. Recent inflation data is softening and likely getting the attention of the Fed. The concern is that inflation may be declining and could be a harbinger that consumers are beginning to slow down purchases that would lead to a softening economic outlook.<\/p>\n

Mortgage applications increased 30.2% from one week earlier<\/strong>, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 10, 2020. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 67% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 43% from the previous week and was 109% higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 16% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased by 51% compared with the previous week and was 8% higher than the same week one year ago.<\/p>\n

At 9:30 am ET<\/strong>\u00a0the DJIA opened -39, NASDAQ +9, S&P -1. 10 yr 1.79% -2 bps. MBS prices +2 bps from yesterday’s close and +7 bps from 9:30 yesterday.<\/p>\n

On a lesser note,<\/strong>\u00a0the Jan Empire State Manufacturing index increased to 4.8 from 3.5 in Dec and higher than 3.6 forecasts.<\/p>\n

At 2:00 pm ET this afternoon, the Fed will release its Beige Book the details from the 12 Fed districts;<\/strong>\u00a0it usually passes with no market reactions.<\/p>\n

The 10 yr continues to slowly improve while mortgage rates remain essentially unchanged.\u00a0<\/strong>Our tech models remain bullish for the 10 yr but recently, in terms of the MBS markets, the bullishness hasn’t transferred to mortgage rates.<\/p>\n

Source: TBWS<\/small><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A big day today, the signing of the US\/China phase one deal in Washington.\u00a0Yesterday it became clear that the US will not remove the existing $320B of tariffs; it surprised the markets that there is nothing in the deal now that would lessen them. The US will, however, not impose the $150B additional tariffs that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8962,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-intelliloan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8815"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8815\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9014,"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8815\/revisions\/9014"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8962"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelliloan.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}